Why has the Syrian war lasted 12 years?

Twelve years of war have inflicted immense suffering on the Syrian people.

In addition to the bloodshed, more than half of Syria’s pre-war population of 22 million have had to flee their homes. Some 6.8 million are internally displaced, with more than two million living in tented camps with limited access to basic services.

Another 6 million are refugees or asylum-seekers abroad. Neighbouring Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey, which are hosting 5.3 million of them, external, have struggled to cope with one of the largest refugee exoduses in recent history.

At the start of 2023, the UN said 15.3 million people inside Syria were in need of some form of humanitarian assistance – an all-time high since the war began – and 12 million did not know where their next meal was coming from.

The already dire humanitarian situation in north-western Syria – the location of the last opposition stronghold – was made significantly worse by the huge earthquake that struck near the Turkish city of Gaziantep, about 80km (50 miles) from the Syrian border, on 6 February 2023.

More than 5,900 people were killed across Syria and another 8.8 million were affected, according to the UN. Thousands of homes and critical infrastructure were destroyed, leaving many families without food, water and shelter. Deliveries of life-saving aid to opposition-held areas were also delayed for days because of what a UN panel described as “shocking” failures by the warring parties as well as the international community.

The disaster happened at a time when the prices of food and fuel in Syria were already skyrocketing because of runaway inflation and the collapse of its currency, as well as the global crisis exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.

Syria has also been one of the countries in the Middle East worst affected by the Covid-19 pandemic – although the true extent is not known because of limited testing – and is now also having to deal with a deadly cholera outbreak that was made worse by the earthquake.

Access to medical care is severely restricted for the sick and injured because only half of the country’s hospitals are fully functional.

Despite their protected status, 601 attacks on at least 400 separate medical facilities had been documented by Physicians for Human Rights as of February 2022, external, resulting in the deaths of 942 medical personnel. The vast majority of the attacks were blamed on government and Russian forces.

Entire neighbourhoods and vital infrastructure across the country also remain in ruins. UN satellite analysis suggested that more than 35,000 structures were damaged or destroyed in Aleppo city alone before it was recaptured by the government in late 2016.

Much of Syria’s rich cultural heritage has likewise been destroyed. All six of the country’s Unesco World Heritage sites have been damaged significantly, with IS militants deliberately blowing up parts of the ancient city of Palmyra.

A UN commission of inquiry has concluded, external that the warring parties “have cumulatively committed almost every crime against humanity… and nearly every war crime applicable in a non-international armed conflict”.

“Syrians,” a February 2021 report says, “have suffered vast aerial bombardments of densely populated areas; they have endured chemical weapons attacks and modern day sieges in which perpetrators deliberately starved the population along medieval scripts and indefensible and shameful restrictions on humanitarian aid”.