Pakistan talks offer divides Taliban factions

Both conferences were attended by nearly all the major political parties and community elders from across the Pakistani tribal areas, including the Waziristan region.

Sources say the conferences have had an impact in highlighting the “futility” of war in Pakistan, and have galvanised support for peace in the tribal areas.

The second development relates to secret, indirect negotiations between representatives of the government and TTP leaders.

A prominent Taliban leader told the BBC on condition of anonymity that initial talks had been held on a range of issues, including the cessation of sectarian attacks in Pakistan, and the dissociation of the TTP from more radical groups such al-Qaeda and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi.

A senior Pakistani official also confirmed to the BBC that such talks were in progress.

Taliban officials say there is increasing pressure on anti-Pakistan groups to embrace a peace deal with Islamabad. This, they believe, will ensure the safety of their leaders and activists while simultaneously freeing them up for operations in Afghanistan once Nato troops withdraw.

In such an uncertain climate it is inevitable that turf wars should break out between different TTP factions – including that led by Mr Muawiya – as all try to secure their positions ahead of a possible deal.

But it is a risky strategy – one Taliban official has already accused him of laying down his cards prematurely.

No doubt lurking in the back of Mr Muawiya’s mind is the fact that Pakistan is now ruled by the family of Nawaz Sharif – which like him has its power base in Punjab. He appears to be eager to be a major beneficiary from any peace deal.

But will the isolation of anti-Pakistan groups within the TTP ensure sustained peace in Pakistan?

The Pakistani strategy still seems to be to separate the “bad” Taliban from those who can be tolerated, or even covertly supported. This policy has not worked during the last 10 years and it is not certain whether it will now.